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According to a study, the natural origin of climate change is "highly unlikely".

According to a study, the natural origin of climate change is “highly unlikely”.

Our species is responsible for the energy imbalance of the planet; A claim makes sense, but it still needs to be proven with the necessary statistical rigor.

Some still doubt the reality of global warming. Likewise, everyone knows the great responsibility of our race in this environmental catastrophe. However, there are still some difficulties like Donald Trump, who announced four years to anyone who wants to hear his climate-skeptical speech. With all due respect to the former president of the United States, a new study contradicted him again: according to researchers, the Earth’s energy imbalance has a “less than 1% chance” of arising naturally.

The story of inequality

For thousands of years, the earth has been operating in a certain harmony; Speaking of excitement, she was in a permanent semi-balance. It continuously accumulates energy through solar radiation; So this body system is in balance, so it is necessary to remove it thanks to two events. The first reflection: All you have to do is send the reflected radiation back to where it came from thanks to the surfaces. So clouds and surfaces like icebergs are very important because they act as a vast natural sun shade. Unexplained energy is absorbed by the ground; To be in balance, it is re-emitted in the form of infrared radiation.

2006 map showing heat transfer between space, atmosphere and Earth. Values ​​are too old for representation, but the principle is still relevant today. – © Robert A. Rohts / [email protected] – WikiCommons

For too long, this record has been zero: The earth absorbs as much energy as it emits. But this dynamic changed with industrialization, which began to upset this balance; High heat is generated and is often trapped in the oceans. So much energy can no longer be expelled; So it is in the earth system, causing catastrophic consequences as a whole. This results in the climate impact we know of: rising temperatures, rising water levels, and the pronunciation of extreme weather events.

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Natural look “Very impossible

This dynamics is already well known and empirically observed; However it is Its appearance is very difficult to prove With satisfactory statistical severity; In science, That is not enough To know See something and every day to prove it. In fact, to provide statistically acceptable and rigorous evidence for this type of event requires considerable regression and a large amount of relevant data.

Thanks to the work of Princeton University researchers, this hypothesis of human origin has now been verified once. They are based on several satellite images collected over the past 20 years, and the results are final. According to Shiv Priyam Raghuram, one of the authors of the study, he “Exception is not possible This trend can be explained by the natural variation of the climate system”. Obviously, this only confirms what we already know. However, their conclusion on the cause of this energy imbalance is very interesting.

Snow melting is one of the main causes of the Earth’s energy imbalance, eroding our natural sun shades. © Cocoparion – Pixabe

Our natural sunglasses fall off

According to researchers, we often imagine that the greenhouse effect is the direct cause; This is a trend Trap Infrared Radiation (See map) The earth emits the heat of solar radiation to scatter. But in reality, the role of this phenomenon in the energy balance of the earth is very indirect. According to researchers, this imbalance has been significant Low reflective surfaces. With a decrease in cloud cover and melting snow (The direct cause for humans), So we are less protected from solar radiation. And always in climates, this is a vicious circle; The more the ice melts, the hotter it gets, and the hotter the ice melts.

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Now, researchers hope to continue their efforts to improve future climate models. But armed with this clear affirmation, they hope to attract the attention of decision-making bodies so that they can mobilize resources. Otherwise, this imbalance will grow indefinitely.

The text of the study is available Here.