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Why a “regeneration” in the number of cases should be feared this week

Why a “regeneration” in the number of cases should be feared this week

Analysis

A decisive week opens in France in managing the epidemic Govit-19. According to France’s latest epidemiological bulletin on public health, pollution increased by 17% in the first week of January. An average of 13,820 new cases are confirmed each day. In addition, the percentage of positive tests is also increasing compared to the number of tests performed, which is 5.4% or 2.6 extra points compared to the previous week.

Two data this week will be specifically explored. First, the percentage of cases of English variant in new infections. Oliver Warren advanced 1% in Europe 1 on Sunday morning, taken from the first reports of the major national survey. Another piece of data on contaminants linked to New Year’s Eve was eagerly awaited this week.

The current decline in indicators is already a measured effect of family gatherings at Christmas. A quarter of these new cases will be identified in the upstream as “contact cases”, which demonstrates the effectiveness of monitoring the chains of pollution. But now the question is, see the consequences of the New Year celebration. Integrated stats will be available over the weekend.

An elastic “We still have ways to control”

But according to experts, these December 31 meetings will have a direct impact. “If we increase reproduction even slightly for two days, it is enough to cause a regeneration,” explains Mircia Sofonia, an epidemiologist at the University of Montpellier. In context Detection of cases of new variations in the area, Experts warn: “We are still at the beginning of a possible renaissance.”

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The challenge now is to adjust local controls as best as possible. Although hospitalization and intensive care are nationally stable, there are strong regional disparities. The situation is worsening in Brittany, Corsica and Pace-de-la-Louvre, as hospitals in the East are already tense.