Will the asteroid Pennu collide with Earth? NASA’s early answer

A few years ago, at the launch of his book, Editions to Reachers-Midi, Asteroids: Earth in danger, Jean-Pierre Luminate Our knowledge of asteroids and the dangers they pose to life on Earth. According to In Newis’ work, Futura had explained it NASA, Will be in The Solar System About 4,700 dangerous asteroids, PHAs (Dangerous asteroids) And only 20 to 30% of them will be diagnosed.

Remember a Asteroid It is part of a PHA with a diameter of more than 150 m, which means that it can reach the surface of the earth without exploding while flying and can sometimes reach 20 times less than the Earth-Moon. Considering some uncertainty regarding the form, The Mass The orbital parameters of such objects, in particular, tell us astronomical calculations that by the game of gravitational disturbances occurring from the major celestial bodies of the solar system, they may have significant chances of colliding with our planet.

A narrow path leading to a collision with the earth

As we study the risk of PHA conflicts more accurately, it is important to determine what is called in English. ” Gravity hole », Which can be translated as a gravitational hole. It is a set of possible values ​​of parametersAround the circular path As the PHA gets very close to Earth, this indicates that a collision will actually take place in the future after this passage.

The asteroid Beno is part of the PHA and, therefore, can only justify this task Origins Spectral Description Resource Identity Identity Security-Recolith Explorer (In short Osiris-RexVisit him to help clarify the dangers that the asteroid could pose to our blue planet. As a bonus, this is NASA’s first asteroid return mission, and that’s why Osiris-Rex Came around Pennu on December 31, 2018.

After further successful completion of planned studies Sample collection, Leave the studyStar May 10, 2021 with the aim of reaching Earth in the month of September 2023. Cosmologists and Geologists Planets can analyze an object from the beginning of computer history. She must have preserved a lot of information about the formation of planets and perhaps the origin of life on Earth.

In fact, Pennu is a type B asteroid and therefore carbonaceous. It is therefore one of the oldest systems in the solar system, subject to minor modification since its formation 4.5 billion years ago. Suggests that there is an examination of its surface by spectroscopy Silicates Dehydration Minerals Hydrated clay and Polymers Organic. In fact, The Spectrum The derivatives are similar to those found on Earth Chondrites Carbonaceous as famous Meteor d ‘Allende Or Murchison.

But, let us come to our initial problem of Pennu’s danger to Earth. The asteroid is expected to move closer to Earth in the future, i.e. in 2135. It should not be threatening, but the question arises as to exactly what it will be. Gravity hole Due to the gravity of our planet at that time.

For now, the available data and calculations are being carried out Computer On September 24, 2182, the probability of an impact on Earth was 1 in 2,700 (or about 0.037%) and the second concern date was 2300 on the horizon, where the probability of impact was 1 in 1,750 (or 0.057%).

These estimates were obtained by more accurately estimating the forces that could be exerted on the pen. These details are available in an article published by a popular magazine Icarus.

The rule determined by the light of the sun?

The Astronomers Have taken into account many such destructive forces Gravity From சோலைல், Planets, their moons and more than 300 other asteroids. Effects of traction due to planetary dust, The Pressure Solar collection and penny particle emission events were evaluated for the velocity transfer caused by Osiris-Rex when called the sample collection event. Touch and go October 2020 (TAG)

The most important effect to measure to indicate Pennu’s future path is sunlight, which has made it possible for an asteroid to be the most accurately determined to date. This may seem ridiculous or surprising, but you should know that light also has a stimulus like a moving object. This means that when a body receives or emits light, it can be set in motion. The effect is very small, of course, but it is. So if we consider a celestial body, and in rotation, when the sun shines, its land will be warmer at the end of the “day” than at the beginning of the “morning”. The amount of light emitted is not the same everywhere on its surface and the calculation shows that its rotation can be slow, but of course, accelerated. This actually speaks exactly to the Yarkovsky-O’Keefe-Radzewski-Podak effect or the Yorp effect. Term ” Yarkovsky effect Indicates the general influence of the motion of a small celestial body of light emitted from its surface with variations in temperature.

To learn more about the York effect measured and evaluated in the path of Pennu, you can profitably consult two excellent videos from the University of Arizona, translated into French and commented onCanadian Space Agency, And it speaks to this context of the Osiris-Rex mission that directed this scale.

⁇ Information Orbits This work helped us to better appreciate the dangers of Pennu’s impact over the next two centuries and our overall understanding of dangerous asteroids. This is an incredible result Dante Loretta, chief researcher at Osiris-Rex and a professor at the University of Arizona, said in a recent NASA report. ⁇ The spacecraft is now returning home, taking a valuable sample of this spectacular ancient object that will measure not only the history of the solar system, but also the role of sunlight in changing the orbit of the Penn. Unprecedented size asteroid in Earth labs “These thermal properties allow Pennu to better control the way he heats up in the sun and how he cools down by emitting light.